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Will this Bear market continue into 2023?

The U.S. economy and stock market struggled in the first half of 2022. Facing a multi-decade high in inflation, aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, and the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war, the S&P 500® index was down 17.3% as of September 1st. Short term bear market rallies may continue occasionally this year, but aggressive Fed rate policy, the turning of the liquidity tide, inflation that remains high and slower economic growth likely will keep overall downward pressure on stocks until the Fed rate hike cycle ends.
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Beginning with the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the U.S. economy and asset markets greatly benefited from the epic jolt of trillions of dollars’ worth of liquidity doled out by the Federal Reserve and Congress. With that liquidity now drying up—the Fed began raising short-term interest rates in the first half of this year—many wonder whether a recession is likely. History’s lessons about the impact of Fed rate-hike cycles suggest a mild recession is more likely than a soft landing.
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