Will this wandering market continue into late of 2023?
Beginning with the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, the U.S. economy and asset markets greatly benefited from the epic jolt of trillions of dollars worth of liquidity doled out by the Federal Reserve and Congress. With that liquidity now drying up and the side effects of such loose monetary policy—the Fed began raising short-term interest rates in March of 2022—many are wondering whether a recession is likely. History’s lessons about the impact of Fed rate-hike cycles suggest a mild recession is more likely than a soft landing.
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The U.S. economy and stock market struggled in late 2022 and early 2023. Facing a multi-decade high in inflation, aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, and the effects of the Russia/Ukraine war, the S&P 500® index was down 19.44% for 2022. It has rebounded 8.21% so far in 2023 but many experts say this may reverse. Inflation as of March 2023 is slowly easing due to fed tightening. However, short term bear market rallies may continue occasionally this year, but a continued tightening Fed rate policy, elevated inflation and slower economic growth likely will keep overall downward pressure on stocks until the Fed rate hike cycle ends possibly by Fall of 2023.
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